I lean naturally in your direction Anne. But you really got my attention with this, "but we aren't seeing the corresponding gas sales agreements yet that commit firm supply for long term contracts at fixed prices to underwrite all these projects." And it certainly looks to me that production is hitting the plateau you predicted and NG is not far behind. I am really looking forward reading the production numbers at the end of Q1 25. Actions speak louder than words IMHO.
Did you see this news about Coterra published in the Marcellus Drilling News?
Coterra announced this in Midland last week by calling an "all hands report immediately to the conference room" meeting. What is not mentioned in the Marcellus Drilling News article is Coterra is moving some Marcellus employees to the Permian basin. A reallocation of employees is not good news for either the Marcellus or the Permian. Jobs will be lost.
The industry is consolidating not growing. This is will manifest itself soon enough in production numbers.
While the exact timing of peak production is challenging to predict, didn't the US experience peak crude production peaks during the 1970s and 2019 (due to fracking)? As you pointed out, US natural gas production has continuously grown, primarily due to the shale revolution, which boosted oil output.
As of 2023, US natural gas production was at record highs, exceeding 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d).
Unlike oil, I also see less immediate concern about an impending peak in natural gas production due to the vast reserves in shale formations and the increasing role of natural gas as a transition fuel in the energy mix. I don't have numbers here yet.
So, the US continues to experience rising natural gas production, with no clear sign of an imminent peak. Technological, economic, and policy developments will shape the future trajectory of both oil and gas. Exciting stuff, right?
See this update from a fellow analyst in the EU, which I've also put in a Note. Whether it's challenging or not, making decisions about long term investments requires an assessment of the odds of many cases, and if one of those is something that could literally cost lives the downside has to be considered.
I lean naturally in your direction Anne. But you really got my attention with this, "but we aren't seeing the corresponding gas sales agreements yet that commit firm supply for long term contracts at fixed prices to underwrite all these projects." And it certainly looks to me that production is hitting the plateau you predicted and NG is not far behind. I am really looking forward reading the production numbers at the end of Q1 25. Actions speak louder than words IMHO.
Did you see this news about Coterra published in the Marcellus Drilling News?
https://marcellusdrilling.com/2024/09/coterra-stops-drilling-new-wells-in-marcellus-fracking-ends-soon/
Coterra announced this in Midland last week by calling an "all hands report immediately to the conference room" meeting. What is not mentioned in the Marcellus Drilling News article is Coterra is moving some Marcellus employees to the Permian basin. A reallocation of employees is not good news for either the Marcellus or the Permian. Jobs will be lost.
The industry is consolidating not growing. This is will manifest itself soon enough in production numbers.
"And no one dared
Disturb the sound of silence"
Simon and Garfunkel
While the exact timing of peak production is challenging to predict, didn't the US experience peak crude production peaks during the 1970s and 2019 (due to fracking)? As you pointed out, US natural gas production has continuously grown, primarily due to the shale revolution, which boosted oil output.
As of 2023, US natural gas production was at record highs, exceeding 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d).
Unlike oil, I also see less immediate concern about an impending peak in natural gas production due to the vast reserves in shale formations and the increasing role of natural gas as a transition fuel in the energy mix. I don't have numbers here yet.
So, the US continues to experience rising natural gas production, with no clear sign of an imminent peak. Technological, economic, and policy developments will shape the future trajectory of both oil and gas. Exciting stuff, right?
See this update from a fellow analyst in the EU, which I've also put in a Note. Whether it's challenging or not, making decisions about long term investments requires an assessment of the odds of many cases, and if one of those is something that could literally cost lives the downside has to be considered.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2024/09/un-grafico-mortal.html